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Abstract
In this paper, we explain an explicit model function. It estimate the total number of deaths in the Total population, and specifically, estimate the cumulative number of deaths in the India due to the current Covid-19 virus affect. Let’s We compare the modeling results in to two related existing models along with a new criteria and several criteria for model selection. The results show the proposed new model significantly suitably result better than the other two related models based on the India Covid-19 death data. We Findout that the errors of the fitted data and the predicted data points on the total number of deaths in the India from the last available data point and the next coming day are less than 0.4% and 1.5%, respectively. The output show very related and predictability for the model. The new model shows that the maximum total number of deaths will be approximately 55308 across the India due to the Covid-19 virus, and with a 95% confidence that the expected total death toll will be between 53,432 and 57,249 deaths based on the data until 27 may, 2020. If any significant changes in the future days due to various testing strategies, social-distancing policies, the reopening of community strategies, or a stay-home policy, the predicted death tolls will definitely change. Future work can be explored further to apply the proposed model to few many country Covid-19 death data and to other applications, the spread of disease, ect,.
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References
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